Exercising in the heat is very common yet can pose significant health risks such as heat exhaustion and heat stroke when core temperature exceeds 38°C and 40°C, respectively. However, current methods of core temperature measurement are invasive and impractical. Recent research indicates that core temperature can be predicted with two non-invasive inputs, heart rate (HR) and skin temperature. PURPOSE: The objective of this study was to assess the validity and reliability of this predictive equation against the direct measurement of core temperature. METHODS: Participants (n = 11) cycled in an environmental chamber (40°C, 40% humidity) at 75% of maximal HR for 45 minutes. Measurements included HR, scapular skin and core temperature, blood pressure, and rating of perceived exertion. Exercise stopped if core temperature exceeded 38.5°C for two consecutive measurements or volitional fatigue. Agreement between predicted and actual core temperature was assessed with Bland–Altman analysis. RESULTS: There was a low correlation (r2 = 0.2) between the direct measure and predicted core temperatures. The Bland–Altman analysis for core minus predicted temperatures showed a bias of 0.14°C and limits of agreement ranging from 0.72°C to −0.45°C. In addition, a large proportion of measurements (40.5%) of the total scores had a difference in temperature greater than ±0.3°C. The predictive equation overpredicted as mean temperature increased from the average core temperature (37°C). CONCLUSION: Based on the narrow temperature range the human body must stay within to prevent heat-related issues, we’ve concluded that the predictive equation lacks sufficient validity and reliability.



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