PREDICTING HIT BALL OUTCOMES IN DIVISION I COLLEGIATE BASEBALL PLAYERS

Authors

Neel L. Patel, University of LouisvilleFollow
Joe Wellwood, University of LouisvilleFollow
Carly A. Lowe, University of LouisvilleFollow
Brian Gscheidle, University of LouisvilleFollow
Margaret M. Wydotis, University of LouisvilleFollow
Katherine F. Maguire, University of LouisvilleFollow
Adam R. Cocco, University of LouisvilleFollow
Ernie Rimer, University of LouisvilleFollow
Pat Ivey, University of LouisvilleFollow
John F. Caruso, University of LouisvilleFollow

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Modern-day technology continues to challenge long-held beliefs on the performance aspects of baseball. METHODS: Three classes of independent variables (anthropometric, in-game situation, technique-based) were collected from 1,922 batting outcomes and 230 players to predict the likelihood of a batting outcome producing a hit from Atlantic Coast Conference baseball games during the 2021 season. Anthropometric measurements entailed player’s heights and weights. In-game situation included batter side, same side, ahead count, and pitch type. Technique-based variables measured by radar (TrackMan; Scottsdale AZ) included exit speed (ExSp), launch angle (LA), batted ball distance (BBD), and hang time (HT). Batting outcomes, with 0 = no hit and 1 = hit, was the dependent variable. A binary logistic regression analysis was conducted with an α = 0.05 to denote statistical significance. RESULTS: Independent variables provided a good fit (χ² (10) = 522.358, p < 0.01) and correctly predicted almost three-fourths of batting outcomes. Height (Wald = 4.176, p < 0.05), ExSp (Wald = 4.675, p < 0.05), LA (Wald = 25.053, p < 0.01), and BBD (Wald = 193.597, p < 0.01) had significant positive associations with batting outcome. HT (Wald = 218.399, p < 0.01) had a significant negative association with batting outcome. CONCLUSIONS: TrackMan provided four significant independent variables. Anthropometry’s contribution to batting performance is modest, while in-game situation’s influence was non-significant. Results contradict long-held beliefs of their importance that began with the sport’s inception.

Recommended Citation

Patel, Neel L.; Wellwood, Joe; Lowe, Carly A.; Gscheidle, Brian; Wydotis, Margaret M.; Maguire, Katherine F.; Cocco, Adam R.; Rimer, Ernie; Ivey, Pat; and Caruso, John F. (2024) "PREDICTING HIT BALL OUTCOMES IN DIVISION I COLLEGIATE BASEBALL PLAYERS," International Journal of Exercise Science: Conference Proceedings: Vol. 16: Iss. 3, Article 21.
Available at: https://digitalcommons.wku.edu/ijesab/vol16/iss3/21