Attrition can be a serious problem for nursing programs and students. Loss of students during a nursing program or through NCLEX failure is a waste of resources and results in inefficiency in the production of nurses for the workforce. Using data from 341 students admitted over a three-year period, the goal of this study was to determine which factors best predicted student success in a Baccalaureate of Science in Nursing (BSN) Program. These factors were then used to develop an admission formula which was tested retroactively to determine its ability to differentiate between successful and non-successful students. Authors defined student success as passing all nursing courses on the first attempt with a grade of C or above, on time program completion, and passing the NCLEX on the first attempt. Logistic regression for prediction of the probability of success found the following three variables accounted for 76% of the variance: Preprogram grade point average (GPA), Science GPA, and scores on the HESI A2 Anatomy and Physiology subscale. The formula derived was validated by retrospective analysis to determine what the effect of using this model would have been if it had been used to select students for admission. Results demonstrated that use of this model would have eliminated 40.1% of the unsuccessful students, while retaining 84% of the successful students.



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