Publication Date


Advisor(s) - Committee Chair

A.A. Bedel, D.M. Coffey, W.C. Normand


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Degree Program

Department of Agriculture

Degree Type

Master of Science


The primary objective of this study was the development of a mathematical model which could be used for forecasting the price of burley tobacco. Two regression models were generated and tested for significance. Data were annual time series.

Each model developed conformed to theory. Each had a high coefficient of multiple determination and a high multiple correlation coefficient. F-values were highly significant. In the stepwise regression model, cigarette consumption per capita and imports were the two most important variables contributing to the variance in price. All Independent variables were examined in the forced entry model. The independent variables included cigarette consumption per capita, imports, exports, production, marketings. stocks, domestic disappearance and an advertising dummy variable.

From this study, it would appear that either of the models developed would be functional in determining burley tobacco price. By projecting values for the independent variables, the model could be used for price prediction and thus be used by the farmer to make production decisions.


Agricultural and Resource Economics | Agriculture | Economics | Life Sciences