Publication Date

8-1-2006

Degree Program

Department of Agriculture

Degree Type

Master of Science

Abstract

Even in the absence of proven human-to-human transmission of the disease, the uncertainty surrounding bird flu could devastate regional economic growth and financial markets. Confirmed cases of human infection from several subtypes of avian influenza infection have been reported since 1997. According to WHO (World Health Organization), experts indicate that there is a possible risk of infection to people who have contact with infected birds or surfaces that have been contaminated with secretions or excretions from infected birds during an outbreak of avian influenza among poultry. On May 8, 2006, WHO reported on 207 cases that resulted in 115 people's deaths. The best way to control the outbreak is to destroy infected poultry or suspected infected poultry. Bird Flu would influence a country's economics, agriculture, and sanitary practices. Due to disease-related bans, poultry exports will decrease and the domestic poultry demand world decline. This study focuses on the avian influenza outbreak effects on the U.S. poultry industry as it impacts the poultry Consumer Price Index (CPI). The method used to predict prices was the multiple regression method and Stepwise regression method. The poultry CPI estimate was then compared to the government forecasted poultry CPI in 2006.

Disciplines

Agriculture | Economics

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